Balancing Pressures and Opportunities
Amid the pressure exerted by high oil prices on global economic growth through increased production and transport costs and fueling inflation, the AI boom emerges as a counterforce supporting economic activity. Moroccan AI expert Anas Abou El Kalam believes the global economy faces a complex equation between the repercussions of rising energy prices and the opportunities offered by digital investments.
AI Contributions to Productivity
Abou El Kalam added that rising oil prices lead to increased transport and production costs, pressuring household purchasing power, while investments in AI contribute to creating new economic activities. He clarified that one of the most prominent contributions of this technology lies in enabling institutions to produce greater value using the same resources through task automation and improved decision-making.
IMF Forecasts
On October 16, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva predicted that global economic growth would stabilize at 3.1% during 2026. Georgieva noted that growth stability reflects the impact of two opposing forces: the first is the energy sector shock pressing on activity, and the second is the AI boom pushing growth upward.
Challenges and Infrastructure
Georgieva pointed to a significant disparity among global economies, where growth forecasts declined in war-affected countries compared to improvements in economies linked to AI value chains. In the same context, she warned of the repercussions of the energy supply shock, noting that shipping still faces significant risks and signs of refining capacity shortages are beginning to appear.
Electricity Consumption and the Technological Paradox
Despite AI's ability to improve energy efficiency, its expansion requires increasing amounts of electricity. Abou El Kalam highlighted a paradox consisting in the technology's need for more electricity to operate data centers, despite its ability to improve network management. According to an International Energy Agency report, data center electricity consumption may rise from about 415 terawatt-hours in 2024 to about 945 terawatt-hours by 2030.
Investments and Inflationary Pressures
Abou El Kalam noted that maximizing benefits requires investment in electricity production and network upgrades. For her part, Georgieva indicated that the rapid development of AI could contribute to increasing inflationary pressures in the short term due to the need for massive infrastructure investments. She emphasized that the size of gains and the speed of their realization remain uncertain.
Source: Anadolu Agency
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