Economic experts have identified five interrelated pillars to achieve monetary stability in Syria, including increasing production and exports, controlling inflation and the money supply, regulating the exchange market, activating banks and remittance channels, and improving the investment environment. Experts emphasized that controlling the exchange rate alone is insufficient without a productive economy and trust in official financial channels.
Production and trade gaps.. pressures exceeding the exchange rate
Economic advisor Dr. Ziad Ayoub Arabsh believes that stabilizing the lira price requires addressing three structural gaps: the trade balance deficit, pressures from the general budget deficit, and the divergence between purchasing power and prices. He clarified that the parallel market dollar exchange rate rose to nearly 140 Syrian pounds, after being below this level before fuel price hikes, while the official rate announced by the Central Bank of Syria remained lower than market prices.
Arabsh warned that rising energy and production input costs, coupled with declining purchasing power, encourage a preference for the dollar to hedge against the depreciation of savings. He called for financing production with interest-free or symbolic interest loans, based on measurable indicators including increased production and employment, reduced energy consumption, and support for small and medium enterprises.
More liquidity or greater inflation? The equation of currency control
Economic expert Dr. Ibrahim Nafee Koushji attributes exchange rate fluctuations to economic, structural, political, and geopolitical factors affecting the supply and demand for foreign currency. He noted that the rising import bill, especially for petroleum derivatives, energy, and raw materials, generates continuous demand for the dollar, while the widening gap between the official and parallel rates undermines the effectiveness of official channels.
Koushji pointed out that weak confidence in the banking sector and liquidity volatility encourage holding dollars or goods as a hedge. He called for reconsidering liquidity restriction policies to achieve a balance between money supply and demand, and enabling commercial banks to buy and sell foreign currencies within a clear regulatory framework. For his part, economic researcher Abdel Azeem Al-Maghral emphasizes that lira stability requires a real balance between foreign currency supply and demand, as well as controlling inflation and liquidity.
Remittances, exports, and investment.. 3 sources for foreign currency inflows
Dr. Abdul Rahman Muhammad, professor of finance and banking at the Faculty of Economics at Hama University, noted that lira stability can be sustained if supported by actual inflows from remittances, investments, and exports. He indicated that remittances are an important source of foreign currency despite being affected by seasonality and regional conditions, while exports can provide more sustainable inflows with expanded production and improved market access.
Banks and remittances.. towards restoring trust and expanding official channels
Official steps aimed at developing the financial sector include establishing the Damascus Foreign Exchange and Gold Market, a financial sector modernization project, and cooperation with international banking institutions. In June 2026, the Central Bank of Syria allowed beneficiaries to choose to receive incoming remittances via global transfer companies in Syrian pounds or foreign currency, before Governor Mohammad Safwat Rusal announced on September 27 that the bank would direct recipients to receive remittances exclusively in foreign currency.
Rusal also predicted the entry of foreign capital exceeding one billion dollars to establish new banks, noting interest from seven delegations expressing willingness to establish banks in Syria. Experts conclude that the stability of the Syrian pound is linked to the ability of monetary and fiscal policies to reduce inflationary pressures, expand foreign currency inflows through official channels, and redirect financing toward production, exports, and job opportunities.
Source: Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA)
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