Gulf states are intensifying their diplomatic moves to reach a multi-track settlement for the US-Israeli-Iranian war, going beyond halting military operations and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, to include sanctions, Iran's nuclear program, and the conflict in Yemen, within a broader vision of regional security arrangements that limit the likelihood of renewed confrontation.
Qatar and the Sultanate of Oman are leading mediation efforts, alongside moves involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, in an attempt to change the nature of negotiations from temporary understandings to contain escalation to a political track that links regional stability with the interests of its countries, at a time when Washington and Tehran's positions remain distant regarding the conditions for ending the war, with prospects of resuming military strikes looming.
Hormuz.. a test of trust between Washington and Tehran
The Strait of Hormuz represents a main axis in negotiations, given its importance in global energy trade and the disruptions caused by restrictions on navigation there, which affect oil and gas supplies and raise shipping costs. The Guardian reported that Iran showed willingness to reduce the duration it previously proposed for reopening the strait from seven days to four days after lifting economic sanctions, indicating flexibility on the navigation aspect, without this meaning a final agreement has been reached on other files.
In a parallel track, Reuters quoted an official familiar with the negotiations as saying that Qatari mediators presented a new draft to Tehran last Sunday, containing a seven-day timeline and daily steps to build trust between the parties, with the possibility of several countries participating in guaranteeing the implementation of the agreement. However, a senior Iranian official said Doha had only presented "unacceptable ideas," emphasizing that Tehran's stance on not showing flexibility regarding the nuclear issue remains in place.
The disagreement over the return of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to Iran stands out as one of the main obstacles to achieving a breakthrough in negotiations; European diplomats see allowing inspectors to visit nuclear sites that were bombed as a fundamental condition for making progress, while Tehran focuses on ensuring the lifting of sanctions and demands addressing this issue before moving to broader nuclear commitments.
Yemen.. a regional extension of the settlement
The diplomatic track is linked to the Yemen file amid increasing attacks targeting Saudi Arabia and its oil facilities by the Houthi militia, and the risks they raise for Gulf security and sea lanes, especially the Bab al-Mandab strait. The Guardian noted that Iran is now dealing more clearly with its role in the Yemen file, as Iranian officials met with Houthi representatives, a day after a Saudi, Turkish, and Pakistani delegation arrived in the Iranian capital to discuss conditions for ending the conflict in Yemen, along with long-term security arrangements for the region.
Mediation seeks to address the relationship between Iranian support for the Houthis and the militia's demands regarding lifting maritime and air restrictions on areas they control, which allows for including Yemen in a broader regional settlement, as indicated by the British newspaper. These efforts gain additional importance amid continued attacks on Saudi oil facilities; oil prices rose on Wednesday, surpassing $115 per barrel, following a Houthi attack on the Ras Tanura refinery, according to Reuters, amid fears of supply disruptions and widening threats to sea lanes, including the Bab al-Mandab strait.
Security arrangements in the face of escalation prospects
The proposed vision, according to The Guardian, goes beyond addressing direct military files to discuss a regional security system including Gulf states and Iran. However, reaching such arrangements remains linked to the ability of parties to overcome their differences regarding Iran's nuclear program and guarantees for lifting sanctions, as well as the future of Iranian influence in the region.
These efforts coincide with increasing economic pressures resulting from disruptions in global energy and trade markets; the World Bank, in its report issued on Wednesday regarding commodity markets, predicted a 23 percent rise in global commodity prices during 2026, driven by supply disruptions and tensions in the Middle East, while predicting a 32 percent rise in energy prices during the same year.
On the other hand, the possibility of resuming military operations remains. US President Donald Trump said Washington could end the war quickly, but he indicated that launching new strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections remains a possibility, while the Wall Street Journal quoted sources saying Washington is studying additional military options. These possibilities place Gulf efforts before a challenge consisting of transforming understandings related to the ceasefire into a broader security framework, where freedom of navigation and energy market stability are not held hostage to the confrontation balance between Washington and Tehran.
Source: Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA)
Comments (0)