Abu Dhabi-SANA: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast a 1.3% contraction in the economic output of the Middle East and North Africa region and Pakistan in 2026, affected by the repercussions of the US-Iran war, particularly on energy production, shipping, tourism, trade, and economic confidence.
Reuters quoted the Fund as saying in a report on Thursday that it expects the region's economies to recover in 2027, with growth reaching 6.6%, noting that these forecasts are based on the assumption that the conflict will subside in early 2027 and trade will gradually return to normal during the same year, while warning of continued high uncertainty.
The Fund clarified that the repercussions of the war vary among countries in the region, with oil-exporting countries being more affected due to disruptions in energy production and shipping, while oil-importing countries showed greater resilience, supported by domestic demand, remittances, tourism flows, favorable financial conditions, and government measures aimed at protecting consumers from rising prices.
It pointed out that pressures on external financial conditions could also intensify if investors reassess the productivity gains expected from artificial intelligence. Regarding the Caucasus and Central Asia region, the IMF forecast economic growth of 5.2% in 2026 and 5% in 2027, as growth trends toward a more sustainable pace.
The Fund called on policymakers to prioritize price stability, maintain fiscal sustainability and central bank independence, and implement structural reforms that enhance productivity and provide jobs. The IMF had raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 by 0.1 percentage points on the 13th of this month, to reach 3.1%.
Source: Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA)
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