Low economic forecasts
The International Monetary Fund warned of the war's repercussions on the economies of the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan, forecasting a 1.3% contraction in 2026, following 3.3% growth in 2025, followed by a uneven recovery in 2027.
Reuters quoted IMF Middle East and Central Asia Department Director Jihad Azour as saying during a press conference on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok that the continuation of the war, disruptions in energy production and shipping routes, and vital infrastructure constitute the most prominent risks threatening the region's economies.
Energy risks and prices
Azour clarified that economic forecasts depend on the speed of the return of energy production and trade to normal, noting that reserves and alternative routes helped mitigate the war's repercussions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but declining reserves and spare production capacity could lead to higher prices with renewed disruptions.
Azour pointed out that oil-exporting countries directly affected by the war will see a significant contraction in 2026, followed by a sharp recovery the following year with the recovery of energy production, while oil-importing countries showed a degree of economic resilience.
Slowing regional growth
In the Caucasus and Central Asia, the IMF forecast growth to slow to 5.2% in 2026, then to 5% in 2027, compared to 6.2% in 2025. Azour called on policymakers to prioritize price stability, rebuild financial reserves, and enhance the region's economies' capacity to withstand future shocks.
The annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank continue in Bangkok until October 18, with the participation of finance ministers, central bank governors, and representatives of international financial institutions. The IMF had slightly raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 by 0.1 percentage point, to reach 3.1%.
Source: Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA)
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