Shadi Jawish, Director of Weather Observation and Forecasting at the National Center for Meteorology, clarified that the forecast preparation process relies on an integrated system of climatic data, observation means, and numerical models, which enable monitoring and analyzing atmospheric developments to issue weather bulletins helping citizens prepare for changes.
Jawish noted that forecasting begins by collecting data from observation stations distributed across various regions, along with satellite imagery and weather radars, then analyzing and comparing them with outputs from global numerical models such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, before being reviewed by specialists and formulated into weather bulletins.
Observation Data and Weather Element Analysis
Jawish added that the forecasting process relies on a set of main weather elements, including maximum and minimum temperatures, atmospheric pressure, humidity, wind speed and direction, as well as precipitation amounts, which are subjected to statistical and physical analysis to determine weather patterns and trends.
Factors Affecting Temperature and Forecast Accuracy
Jawish pointed out that the most prominent factors affecting temperatures are solar radiation, air mass sources, and winds, explaining that forecast accuracy is higher in the short term, spanning a few days, compared to the medium term, which reaches about a week, due to the accumulation of errors in numerical models.
Numerical Models and Modern Technologies
Jawish indicated that numerical models form the backbone of the weather forecasting process, relying on solving complex mathematical and physical equations using supercomputers to simulate atmospheric development, likening numerical models to the engine driving the forecasting process.
Artificial Intelligence and Early Warning Support
Regarding the role of artificial intelligence, Jawish clarified that it can be employed to accelerate the production of weather forecasts during short periods, handle missing data, and detect unusual patterns in weather information, including supporting early warning systems for extreme weather phenomena.
The National Center for Meteorology and Climate represents the authority responsible for observing weather elements and issuing climate reports, bulletins, and warnings for extreme weather conditions, and also represents the Syrian Arab Republic before the World Meteorological Organization.
Source: Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA)
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