OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 for the sixth consecutive time on Tuesday, bringing it to 200,000 barrels per day, compared to previous estimates of 400,000 barrels per day.
The organization's monthly report stated that this reduction coincided with continued supply disruptions resulting from the US war on Iran and the ongoing repercussions on the global economy. In contrast, OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand growth during 2027 to 2.6 million barrels per day, compared to 2.4 million barrels per day in previous estimates.
Economic forecasts and stability
The organization maintained its forecast for global economic growth at 3 percent during 2026, and 3.2 percent during 2027. These estimates come amid fluctuations in global energy markets due to the US war on Iran, which has contributed to rising oil prices and inflation levels.
Background of regional tensions
On February 28, the United States and Israel launched military attacks on Iran, resulting in thousands of deaths. Tehran responded by launching attacks on Israel and US sites in regional countries, before a ceasefire was reached in April. Later, the US launched attacks on sites in Iran, amid stalled negotiations between the two countries, despite the signing of a memorandum of understanding in mid-June.
The stalled negotiations come against the backdrop of disagreements over navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, which is considered one of the most important strategic corridors for global energy and goods supplies.
Source: Anadolu Agency
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