OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 again on Tuesday, amid uncertainty surrounding the war in the Middle East. In its October monthly report, the organization said it expects global oil demand to increase by 180,000 barrels per day in 2026 compared to 2025. This is the sixth consecutive month that OPEC has lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth this year, by approximately 200,000 barrels per day each month.
According to the report, Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the organization, recorded a strong recovery, with its production in September reaching 8.372 million barrels per day, the highest monthly level since the outbreak of the war. The Kingdom's production had reached only 6.24 million barrels per day in August, its lowest level during the year. OPEC attributes the downward revision of global oil demand growth forecasts primarily to a decline in diesel demand by approximately 190,000 barrels per day.
Since February last year, the reference price in Europe for diesel has more than doubled, from around $95 per barrel to approximately $200 per barrel in September, a record level for this year. OPEC explained that the decline in Russian oil product supplies, low storage levels, and seasonal maintenance at refineries contributed to the price increase.
Despite the slowdown in global oil demand in 2026, OPEC forecast that consumption would rise by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2027 compared to 2026. The organization believes that demand next year will be driven by the need to refill oil reserves. Global oil demand growth forecasts are experiencing sharp divergence and wide debate among major international organizations due to geopolitical disturbances and tensions in the Middle East.
Source: Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA)
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