The "Global Carbon Budget" report predicted that global emissions from fossil fuels will decline slightly this year, thanks to the expansion of renewable energy and the oil price shock resulting from the war in Iran.
The report, published coinciding with the meeting of countries at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP31) currently held in Antalya, Turkey, showed that emissions from burning oil, gas, and coal rose by an average of 0.9 percent annually over the past decade, reaching a record level in 2025, but are expected to fall by 0.4 percent this year.
Reasons for the decline
This was the first annual decline since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic paralyzed the global economy, trade, and transport. Researchers involved in preparing the report found that the war between the United States and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz contributed to reducing emissions, as it led to a decline in oil consumption amid sharp increases in crude prices.
The deployment of solar panels, wind farms, and electric vehicles also contributed to this decline. The report concluded that two-thirds of the increase in global energy demand is met by solar energy, wind energy, and electric vehicles.
Warnings of emissions rebound
Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget office at the University of Exeter in the UK, warned that "the decline in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels is encouraging, but this downturn, partly due to geopolitical shocks, does not represent a sustainable solution for the climate." He added, "The long-term solution remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies."
For her part, Corinne Le Quéré, professor of climate change science at the University of East Anglia, noted that emissions rebounded when economies recovered after shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic or the global financial crisis, stating that a rebound is likely "when tensions related to oil subside."
2026 projections
Estimates indicate that oil-related emissions fell by 1.9 percent last year, but that was "likely a short-term response to the energy shock resulting from the war with Iran," according to researchers. Gas emissions are expected to fall by 0.3 percent, while emissions from coal use will rise by 0.6 percent.
CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are also expected to reach 38.2 billion tons in 2026. Including emissions from land-use changes, such as deforestation, CO2 emissions are expected to rise to 43.3 billion tons, compared to 42.8 billion tons last year.
The Global Carbon Budget report is one of the most prominent international scientific reports issued by the Global Carbon Project team to track global trends in carbon dioxide emissions and sinks, and is used as a key benchmark for measuring progress toward the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement. UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged world leaders participating in the UN Climate Change Conference "COP31" in the Turkish city of Antalya yesterday to take the issue of climate change seriously and accelerate the implementation of commitments to reduce emissions and move away from fossil fuels.
Source: Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA)
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