Saudi Arabia's crude oil production recorded an increase exceeding 2 million barrels per day during last September, a move reflecting the restoration of part of its supplies after a sharp decline witnessed in previous months. This rise came in parallel with increased exports and higher output from the OPEC+ alliance, despite ongoing risks threatening energy transport routes in the region.
According to Bloomberg, citing the monthly report issued by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) yesterday, Tuesday, Saudi Arabia reported to the organization that its production reached 8.372 million barrels per day in September, compared to 6.238 million barrels per day in August, an increase of approximately 2.13 million barrels per day within a single month. This increase coincided with a broader recovery in OPEC+ supplies, as its average production rose by about 900,000 barrels per day during September, reaching 39.07 million barrels per day, according to the organization's data based on secondary sources.
Exports Regain Momentum
The rise in production was accompanied by a noticeable improvement in Saudi crude oil exports, which averaged approximately 6.13 million barrels per day in September, compared to 3.41 million barrels per day in August, an increase of nearly 80 percent, according to tanker-tracking data collected by Bloomberg, while Kpler estimated exports at around 6.27 million barrels per day during the same month. This improvement reflects the Kingdom's ability to adjust oil transport routes and deal with disruptions that affected export infrastructure.
The Financial Times reported that increased shipments through Gulf ports helped compensate for the decline in supplies transported via the Red Sea port of Yanbu, after the East-West pipeline feeding the port was attacked on September 10. The line transports crude oil from Eastern Region fields to the Red Sea, providing an alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz, but the recovery of exports did not rely solely on this route. The Financial Times noted the expanded use of tankers transferring oil to other ships off the coasts of the UAE and Oman, a mechanism that helps maintain the flow of shipments despite logistical constraints.
Despite this recovery, supply sustainability remains vulnerable to risks amid escalating tensions and attacks on navigation during the current month of October, particularly in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening the continued improvement of shipping activity and increasing uncertainty surrounding energy markets.
Global Demand Faces Slowdown in 2026
Alongside the improvement in production, OPEC lowered its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 180,000 barrels per day, compared to 380,000 barrels per day in its previous estimates, marking the sixth consecutive downward revision of these forecasts. In contrast, the organization raised its estimates for demand growth in 2027 to 2.55 million barrels per day, expecting global average consumption to reach approximately 108.3 million barrels per day.
According to Reuters, the organization attributes part of the expected growth next year to the need to rebuild oil stocks depleted during supply disruptions, while the difference in forecasts between the two years indicates that demand recovery remains uneven, with market prospects linked to supply stability and the ability of countries and companies to replenish consumed stocks. These developments indicate that the Saudi jump is an important indicator of improved oil flow in September, but it is not sufficient on its own to judge market stability, as shipping route safety, continued infrastructure operation, and global demand trends remain critical factors in determining the trajectory of supplies in the coming months.
Source: Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA)
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