The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) warned that global warming is poised to exceed the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels, emphasizing that limiting this exceedance and returning to the threshold by the end of the century remains possible, provided emissions are reduced urgently.
Emissions Gap and Tipping Points
The UN News website reported that the Programme issued a report today, Wednesday, titled "Emissions Gap Report 2026: Turning Point," which clarified that capping warming peak between 1.7°C and 1.8°C by around mid-century requires reducing emissions by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040, compared to 2025 levels.
Warnings from the Secretary-General and Executive Director
For his part, UN Secretary-General António Guterres affirmed that exceeding the 1.5°C threshold does not mean surrender, stressing the possibility of limiting the duration and extent of the exceedance and working to return temperatures below this threshold by the end of the century. Meanwhile, UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen warned that every additional increase in temperatures, and every year of warming above 1.5°C, exacerbates climate risks, including floods, heatwaves, and wildfires.
Warming Scenarios and Fossil Fuels
The report indicated that continuing current policies could lead to a global temperature rise of about 2.8°C during the current century, while the rise could reach 2.6°C even if current national climate action plans are implemented. It noted that projections have declined compared to last year, due to revisions of historical emission estimates and developments related to international climate policies. The report called for accelerating the implementation of the Paris Agreement goals, particularly tripling renewable energy capacity, improving energy efficiency, transitioning away from fossil fuels, reducing non-CO2 emissions, and halting deforestation and forest degradation.
The report emphasized that achieving the scenario of minimal exceedance of the warming threshold requires reducing the share of coal, oil, and gas in total energy supply by at least 55%, 15%, and 5% respectively by 2035, compared to 2025 levels, with reductions rising by 2040 to 75%, 30%, and 35%.
Source: Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA)
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