The limited US strikes targeting Iran's Qeshm island on the eve of the US midterm congressional elections have brought the confrontation file between Washington and Tehran back to the forefront, as regional mediations continue in pursuit of an agreement to end the war. While Washington describes the strikes as a defensive measure, President Donald Trump's administration continues to hint at the possibility of resuming military operations without abandoning the negotiation track.
Reuters quoted US officials as saying the strikes were in response to Iran's use of surface-to-air missiles against US sites, affirming that the operation was limited and fell within the framework of defending US sites and assets, and did not mean a return to wide-scale combat operations. Iranian media reported hearing explosions on Qeshm island, located at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important maritime routes for energy transport. The island gains strategic importance due to its proximity to the strait.
Three paths within the US administration
A reading published by the American Axios website, based on informed sources, reveals divergent views within the US administration regarding the next stage. Vice President JD Vance and US envoy Steve Witkoff push towards reaching an agreement, based on the premise that resuming the war may not lead to a fundamental change in the existing equation. In contrast, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth call for resuming military operations, considering that Tehran cannot be trusted to adhere to any agreement.
As for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, they support, according to the sources cited by Axios, continuing economic pressure, without returning to a wide war or concluding an agreement at the present time. These positions do not reflect the US administration's decisiveness in choosing its options, but rather reveal the multiplicity of proposed paths, between negotiation, economic pressure, and keeping the military option open.
Mediation continues and differences remain unresolved
In the diplomatic track, Axios reported that Qatari mediators prepared a draft containing steps to build confidence over three days, paving the way for resuming direct negotiations between the United States and Iran. The website quoted regional sources as saying that Qatari envoy Ali bin Tamim Al Thani visited Tehran to follow up on discussions regarding the draft, while mediation awaits responses from both sides. For her part, the Associated Press noted the continuation of diplomatic communications alongside military movements, pointing to Vance's comments about the existence of an opportunity to reach a negotiated settlement.
However, the continuation of mediation does not necessarily mean that an agreement is close; Reuters quoted a senior Iranian official as saying that Washington and Tehran are still far from an agreement, despite intensified diplomatic efforts. The official clarified that meeting Tehran's conditions precedes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and that nuclear talks cannot begin before that. The disagreement over the sequencing of steps stands out as one of the major obstacles to a settlement; Washington seeks guarantees regarding the nuclear file, while Tehran links the transition to nuclear negotiations with meeting its demands regarding the strait.
Elections and the cost of confrontation
These developments coincide with the US midterm elections, which may affect Trump's political calculations, although they do not represent the sole determining factor in his options regarding Iran. Trump told Axios that he is not in a hurry to make a decision regarding the resumption of strikes, while Vance spoke of progress in communications, with Washington affirming its retention of military and non-military options. The Associated Press highlighted the economic repercussions of the war, particularly their impact on fuel prices and the US economy, at a time when Republicans are seeking to maintain their majority in Congress.
The agency also pointed to the continued US military presence in the region and the reinforcement of forces, which allows Washington to maintain pressure, but simultaneously increases the cost of any decision to resume military operations. In light of these circumstances, the Qeshm strike alone does not constitute a decisive indicator of the direction of the next stage; it is, according to the American narrative cited by Reuters, a limited operation, while mediation remains ongoing and fundamental differences remain unresolved. The path of confrontation remains contingent on Washington and Tehran's ability to reach an understanding regarding the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear program, and on both sides' willingness to bear the cost of returning to a wider confrontation in case negotiations stall.
Source: Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA)
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