The World Bank has predicted a record surge in energy and commodity prices during the current year 2026, amid the ongoing US-Iran war.
Rise in Energy and Commodity Prices
The Bank, in a report issued today Wednesday, projected a 32% increase in energy prices after three years of decline, before stabilizing in 2027. It noted that the average price of Brent crude would reach $91 per barrel, up from $69 last year, before dropping to $79 in 2027. As for commodity prices, they are expected to rise by 23% due to the war's repercussions, depletion of reserves, disruption of grain shipments, and the effects of the El Niño phenomenon.
Food and Minerals Implications
The report pointed to expectations of a 10% increase in food commodity prices this year and 7% next year, with a cumulative increase of 18%. It highlighted that these forecasts assume no escalation of conflicts, noting that Brent prices could reach $105 in case of escalation. In this context, the report projected a 5.2% decline in global oil supply, the largest drop in four decades, with consumption decreasing by 2.5%.
Fertilizer and Mineral Prices
The report predicted a 14% rise in fertilizer prices during 2026 following an increase in urea, while metal prices rose by 25% due to demand for renewable energy and electric vehicles. Precious metals are expected to rise by 40% due to geopolitical uncertainty, with a slight moderation in 2027, but they will remain more than three times the average of the period between 2015 and 2019.
Source: Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA)
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